In a speech at London Games Conference, American analyst Michael Pachter let loose a number of bold statements. Pachter believes that the PS4 will out sell the Xbox One, The Wii U will only sell around 30 million units, and that most notably:
“The console installed base has peaked. Consoles may not be relevant in 10 years.”
He feels that this may be the last console generation. He stressed that the PS4 has two major advantages: price, and the lack of Kinect. I’d have to agree with him. The Kinect is a huge resource drain. Although he countered that the Xbox One’s TV functionality could give Microsoft an advantage, especially if cable providers offered subsidies on the console.
The analyst predicts that the PS4 will win the next generation, selling between 100 and 120 million units over the course of its lifetime, the Xbox One selling between 90 and 110 million units and the Wii U trudging along, selling 30 million.
“If you are a Nintendo fan bitching about my opinion on Wii U, stop, put your money where your mouth is and buy a Wii U.”
With the PS4 and Xbox One launching this month in North America, only time will tell.
Pachter said that if Microsoft were to lower its prices to more closely compete with the products from Sony and Nintendo, that the technology monolith would be neck and neck with the PS4.
On an even gloomier note, he said that he is surprised that the price of physical games hasn’t gone up in parity with the rising costs of other entertainment.
“Movies have gone up steadily, TV rights have gone up, music royalties have gone… but everyone seems to think we will get more and more games for the same price.”
Fortunately, Pachter ended things with a touch of optimistic hope for the future of the industry. He said that the Western games market is stronger than ever, now that digitally distributed content has become mainstream.
“And I think one day you’ll get to play any game, anywhere on any device.”
The PS4 kicks off the next, and possibly final, generation on this Friday, and the Xbox One will follow shortly after on November 22.